Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andruv stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andruv stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hradec Králové, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Sigma Olomouc.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 51% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 55% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.57 xG and Hradec Králové 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.222 / defence 0.880 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Sigma Olomouc games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 19%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 5.26. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Hradec Králové lead the H2H ledger, but Sigma Olomouc carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 51% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.57 / Hradec Králové 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.222 / def 0.880 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hradec Králové xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Andruv stadion.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 51% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 5W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.22x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.35
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.47
0.90
Hradec Králové xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
4%
25.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.90 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 22W 10D 15L from 47 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 17L across 47 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.62 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 13W 5D 5L from 23 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.28 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.91 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 35%, Hradec Králové 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sigma Olomouc) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 52% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.