Plzen 5-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Plzen (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plzen face České Budějovice.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Plzen welcome České Budějovice to Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Plzen have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, České Budějovice stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

České Budějovice away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Plzen's games and 60% of České Budějovice's (from Plzen's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for České Budějovice, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Plzen 5–2 České Budějovice — a Plzen win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Plzen and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Plzen in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

České Budějovice in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 65% | České Budějovice 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.19 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.174 / defence 1.271 | České Budějovice attack 0.739 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.240. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Plzen's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing České Budějovice's projected output up. Data: built from Plzen's last 46 games and České Budějovice's last 46.

Result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.65 | Draw 5.00 | České Budějovice 5.15. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 70% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights