Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Malsovicka arena to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hradec Králové carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Mlada Boleslav have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Hradec Králové.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
It is worth noting that Mlada Boleslav have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 44% | Mlada Boleslav 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.87 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.188 / defence 0.774 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.946 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.232. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Hradec Králové games / 48 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 23% | Mlada Boleslav 17%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Mlada Boleslav 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Mlada Boleslav lead the H2H ledger, but Hradec Králové carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Mlada Boleslav 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 23% | Mlada Boleslav 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Hradec Králové 1.87 / Mlada Boleslav 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.188 / def 0.774 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.946 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mlada Boleslav xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 60% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 5W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.32
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.77
0.90
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
37.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.90 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 21W 12D 19L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.44 PPG, Mlada Boleslav on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 4D 13L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.42 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 12D 19L in their last 52 games (1.44 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.67 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 42%, Mlada Boleslav 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hradec Králové) and 67% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Hradec Králové's games and 71% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 1-1 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.87 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.90 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.19 / defence 0.77 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 60% | Draw 23% | Mlada Boleslav 17%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Mlada Boleslav 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.44 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.