FK Jablonec 4-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FK Jablonec face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 9 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slovácko's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Slovácko and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended FK Jablonec 0–0 Slovácko — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.19 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.163 / defence 0.857 | Slovácko attack 1.015 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.194. Slovácko's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FK Jablonec's projected output up. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 50 games and Slovácko's last 50.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 64% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 17%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.57 | Draw 5.05 | Slovácko 6.00. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 64% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FK Jablonec 2.19 / Slovácko 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.163 / def 0.857 | Slovácko attack 1.015 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Slovácko xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
FK Jablonec 4 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 64% chance of winning, Slovácko a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.16) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 50 games and Slovácko's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.05
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.23
1.04
Slovácko xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
2%
53.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.04 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 17D 20L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.25 PPG from 55 outings (18W 15D 22L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.29 PPG, Slovácko on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.15 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovácko away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.68 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.18 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slovácko in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 6, Slovácko have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 57%, Slovácko 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 57% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 46% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 57% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 82% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovácko 4-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.19 xG and Slovácko 1.04 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 64% | Draw 20% | Slovácko 17%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.29 PPG, Slovácko 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.