FK Jablonec 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 55%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bohemians 1905 — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, FK Jablonec have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905 away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FK Jablonec, 1.30 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Bohemians 1905, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended FK Jablonec 2–1 Bohemians 1905 — a FK Jablonec win.
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 46% | Bohemians 1905 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.292 / defence 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.198. FK Jablonec carry an above-average attack rating of 1.292 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 49 games and Bohemians 1905's last 49.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.81 | Draw 3.89 | Bohemians 1905 5.22. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.72 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.292 / def 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.916 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 55% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.92x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 49 games and Bohemians 1905's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.89
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.65
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
29.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 17D 19L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.13 PPG from 54 outings (14W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.13 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 13W 8D 5L across their last 26 home games, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 18W 17D 19L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 19D 21L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.81 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.15 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905, the earliest from July 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won FK Jablonec 0-3 Bohemians 1905 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Bohemians 1905 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 58% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 69% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.29 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 55% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 46%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.31 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.