FK Jablonec 2-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as FK Jablonec welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Střelnice this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.50 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 54% versus Hradec Králové 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FK Jablonec 40% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.928 / defence 0.887 | Hradec Králové attack 0.801 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.148. Data: 38 FK Jablonec games / 38 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 4.17. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Hradec Králové 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG FK Jablonec 1.26 / Hradec Králové 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.928 / def 0.887 | Hradec Králové attack 0.801 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Hradec Králové xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec 2 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové part of?
FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 47% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.42
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.07
0.81
Hradec Králové xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.81 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 16D 15L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.42 PPG from 43 outings (17W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 12W 16D 15L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 10D 16L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Hradec Králové away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.52 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.86 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 62%, Hradec Králové 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FK Jablonec) and 33% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 43% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 33% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Hradec Králové 2-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.26 xG and Hradec Králové 0.81 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Hradec Králové attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 47% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 24%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.