Bohemians 1905 3-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Bohemians 1905's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Karviná (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Karviná's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Karviná in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Karviná — Karviná have 1 win, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 2–1 Karviná — a Bohemians 1905 win.
The head-to-head data gives Bohemians 1905 an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 55% versus Karviná 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Karviná 57%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.96 xG and Karviná 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.964 / defence 1.417 | Karviná attack 1.007 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.191. Karviná's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 1.417 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karviná's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 48 games and Karviná's last 48.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.30 | Draw 4.25 | Karviná 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 1905 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 60% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.96 / Karviná 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.964 / def 1.417 | Karviná attack 1.007 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Karviná xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 43% chance of winning, Karviná a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.96) and Karviná's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.01x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 48 games and Karviná's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
43%
2.30
24%
4.25
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.66
1.70
Karviná xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.70 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 18D 21L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 15W 12D 26L from 53 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.08 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 26 home games (7W 9D 10L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 6W 5D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.04 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Karviná have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Karviná away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; Karviná away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 14 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won Bohemians 1905 4-0 Karviná on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2025: Bohemians 1905 0-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Karviná?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Karviná 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 62% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 42% of games; Karviná in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 58% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 62% of Karviná's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 81% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Karviná finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.96 xG and Karviná 1.70 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karviná outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.96 / defence 1.42 against Karviná attack 1.01 / defence 1.38, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 24% | Karviná 33%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Karviná 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Karviná 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.