Dukla Praha 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dukla Praha face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Juliska plays host to Dukla Praha versus Plzen in Czech Liga (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Plzen have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Plzen have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Plzen attack 1.073 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.253. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 0 games and Plzen's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 28% | Plzen 45%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.66 | Draw 3.60 | Plzen 2.23. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Dukla Praha 0 games, Plzen 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 28% | Plzen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Dukla Praha 1.16 / Plzen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Plzen attack 1.073 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Plzen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Plzen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dukla Praha vs Plzen FAQs
What time does Dukla Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Plzen?
Dukla Praha 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Plzen part of?
Dukla Praha vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 1) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 27% chance of winning, Plzen a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dukla Praha and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dukla Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.07x) against Dukla Praha's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Dukla Praha's last 0 games and Plzen's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
27%
3.66
28%
3.60
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.71
1.55
Plzen xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
6%
17.18
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dukla Praha vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.55 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Pre-Season
Plzen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Dukla Praha (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dukla Praha
Pre-Season
Plzen
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 14 December 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dukla Praha
0
Draws
3
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Dukla Praha vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Plzen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dukla Praha have won 1, Plzen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2025: Plzen 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Dukla Praha 1-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Plzen attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 28% | Plzen 45%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.