Slovácko 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Slavia Praha at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Slavia Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Slavia Praha's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slovácko register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Slavia Praha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Slavia Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Slovácko's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 51% versus Slavia Praha 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.25 xG and Slavia Praha 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.962 / defence 1.027 | Slavia Praha attack 1.056 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.356. Data: 30 Slovácko games / 30 Slavia Praha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 41%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 70% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovácko 1.25 / Slavia Praha 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.962 / def 1.027 | Slavia Praha attack 1.056 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Slovácko vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Slovácko 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha part of?
Slovácko vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 31% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovácko and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Slovácko 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Slovácko and Slavia Praha in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Slovácko (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.96) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.55
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.72
1.47
Slavia Praha xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.47 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 8D 15L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. Slovácko haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.43 PPG from 35 outings (26W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. Slavia Praha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.24 points per game from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.17 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Pre-Season
Slavia Praha
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 26W 7D 2L in their last 35 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.29 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Slavia Praha won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Slovácko
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 59%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slovácko) and 47% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Slovácko's games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slovácko's recent games and 47% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 1, as Slovácko and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.25 xG and Slavia Praha 1.47 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Slavia Praha attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 31% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 41%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.