Baník Ostrava 0-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Slavia Praha travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 December 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slavia Praha — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Slavia Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against Baník Ostrava's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–5 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 53% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 55% | Slavia Praha 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Slavia Praha 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.223 / defence 0.936 | Slavia Praha attack 1.438 / defence 0.617. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.187. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.617 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Baník Ostrava games / 46 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Slavia Praha 2.17. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Baník Ostrava 40% | Slavia Praha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.15 / Slavia Praha 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.223 / def 0.936 | Slavia Praha attack 1.438 / def 0.617 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Slavia Praha xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 25% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Baník Ostrava 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 5W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.22) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
25%
3.99
29%
3.40
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.75
1.60
Slavia Praha xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
19.73
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.60 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 10D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.53 PPG from 51 outings (40W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 12W 5D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.29 points per game from 24 outings (16W 7D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.24 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 23W 10D 18L in their last 51 games (1.55 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 40W 9D 2L in their last 51 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.71 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 46%, Slavia Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Baník Ostrava) and 46% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 46% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Baník Ostrava 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-1 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.15 xG and Slavia Praha 1.60 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Slavia Praha attack 1.44 / defence 0.62, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 25% | Draw 29% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 55%, Slavia Praha 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.55. Form held, and they took the win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.