Baník Ostrava 6-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha meet at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 6W 2D 2L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 2D 4L from 6 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Baník Ostrava's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dukla Praha — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 54% versus Dukla Praha 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 54% | Dukla Praha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Dukla Praha 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.019 / defence 1.017 | Dukla Praha attack 0.608 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.189. Data: 43 Baník Ostrava games / 13 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 54% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 16%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Dukla Praha 6.25. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 50% | Dukla Praha 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 54% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.53 / Dukla Praha 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.019 / def 1.017 | Dukla Praha attack 0.608 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Dukla Praha xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Baník Ostrava 6 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 54% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.02) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.61x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.30
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.27
0.73
Dukla Praha xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
3%
29.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.73 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dukla Praha sit at 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Baník Ostrava are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dukla Praha have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.77 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 2D 8L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Dukla Praha away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 2.40 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 6-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
From 5 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-3 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 40%, Dukla Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Baník Ostrava) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 40% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 6-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.53 xG and Dukla Praha 0.73 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Dukla Praha attack 0.61 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 54% | Draw 30% | Dukla Praha 16%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 54%, Dukla Praha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.