Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.673 / defence 1.195 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.036 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.220. Yunnan Yukun's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Yunnan Yukun games / 31 Hangzhou Greentown games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.22. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.18 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.673 / def 1.195 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.036 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 30% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Yunnan Yukun's attack rating (0.67) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.91
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.51 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.18 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 30% | Draw 26% | Hangzhou Greentown 45%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.