Wuhan Zall 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 36%, yet in-form SHANGHAI SIPG provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Puwan Stadium plays host to Wuhan Zall versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Zall (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Zall have posted 2W 6D 2L at Puwan Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Wuhan Zall 1W, SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2022, ended 1–0 with Wuhan Zall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Wuhan Zall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 64% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 41% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.32 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.057 / defence 1.191 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.937 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.152. Data: 19 Wuhan Zall games / 19 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Zall as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SHANGHAI SIPG (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 80% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.32 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.057 / def 1.191 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.937 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 36% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Zall 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (1.06) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.94x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
36%
2.82
30%
3.29
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.60
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.19
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.29 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 3W 11D 8L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 13W 6D 3L from 22 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wuhan Zall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 4W 5D 2L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.91 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 11D 8L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.09 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 9 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
2
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 25 June 2022, when Wuhan Zall 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Wuhan Zall, 64% for SHANGHAI SIPG — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wuhan Zall) and 54% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Wuhan Zall's games and 64% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SHANGHAI SIPG defy the odds to beat Wuhan Zall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Zall 1-2 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.32 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 36% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 41%, SHANGHAI SIPG 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.