Dalian Aerbin 0-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Henan Jianye to Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 3W 1D 6L at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dalian Aerbin 1.30 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Henan Jianye and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Henan Jianye trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 46% versus Henan Jianye 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dalian Aerbin 46% | Henan Jianye 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.964 / defence 0.873 | Henan Jianye attack 0.997 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.141. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 19 Dalian Aerbin games / 19 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 40% | Henan Jianye 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.87 / Henan Jianye 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.964 / def 0.873 | Henan Jianye attack 0.997 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 24 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Aerbin 0 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 29% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.96x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
29%
3.42
35%
2.85
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
1.87
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 15.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 0.99 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 6W 2D 14L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 6L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dalian Aerbin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 1W 4D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 0.86 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 2D 14L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Henan Jianye away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-3 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dalian Aerbin 40% BTTS, Henan Jianye 30%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Dalian Aerbin and 20% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 40% of games; Henan Jianye in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 30% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 20% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Dalian Aerbin 0-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Henan Jianye attack 1.00 / defence 0.68, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 29% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 46%, Henan Jianye 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.