Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Qingdao Youth Island.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.30 for Qingdao Youth Island. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Jun 2024, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–0 Qingdao Youth Island — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 55% versus Qingdao Youth Island 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 41% | Qingdao Youth Island 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.686 / defence 0.997 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.815 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 59 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 29.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.24 | Draw 3.59 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.63. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 40% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Youth Island 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.686 / def 0.997 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.815 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Qingdao Youth Island xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 45% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.81x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 59 games and Qingdao Youth Island's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.59
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.03 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 7D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 7W 8D 14L from 29 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 14 home games (4W 2D 8L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 4W 1D 9L from their last 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.31 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 62%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Qingdao Youth Island (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 8W 7D 14L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.00 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island, the earliest from June 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 43%, Qingdao Youth Island 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 71% (Qingdao Youth Island).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 43% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 57% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 71% of Qingdao Youth Island's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 93% of Qingdao Youth Island's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Youth Island cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.39 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.69 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 45% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Youth Island 28%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Qingdao Youth Island win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 41%, Qingdao Youth Island 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.