Meizhou Kejia 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium plays host to Meizhou Kejia versus Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Current Form
Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Meizhou Kejia have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Meizhou Kejia, 1.00 for Wuhan Three Towns — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Meizhou Kejia's last 10 home games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 away games) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Wuhan Three Towns in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have the stronger record — 4 wins to Meizhou Kejia's 1, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended Meizhou Kejia 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns — a Meizhou Kejia win.
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Meizhou Kejia half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wuhan Three Towns half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 62% and Wuhan Three Towns 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Wuhan Three Towns 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.09 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.752 / defence 1.166 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.843 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Meizhou Kejia's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Wuhan Three Towns bring a tight defence (rating 0.771, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Meizhou Kejia's projected output down. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 58 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 58.
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 40%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.21 | Draw 3.43 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Wuhan Three Towns 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Three Towns 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 29 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.09 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.752 / def 1.166 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.843 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 29) (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 31% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.75x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.84x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Meizhou Kejia's last 58 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.43
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.27 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Meizhou Kejia have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 16D 28L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 22W 16D 20L from 58 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Meizhou Kejia have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 11W 9D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.40 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wuhan Three Towns in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Form FAQs
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 16D 28L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 22W 16D 20L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.31 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Meizhou Kejia have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 3-0 Meizhou Kejia on 21 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Meizhou Kejia
0
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Meizhou Kejia have won 4, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Meizhou Kejia, 76% for Wuhan Three Towns — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Meizhou Kejia) and 59% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Three Towns Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 76% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 59% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Three Towns matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 83% of Wuhan Three Towns's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.09 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 31% | Draw 29% | Wuhan Three Towns 40%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Meizhou Kejia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Meizhou Kejia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.