Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sichuan Jiuniu welcome Yunnan Yukun to Longquanyi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sichuan Jiuniu at Longquanyi Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / defence 1.032 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.351. Data: 32 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 2 Yunnan Yukun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Yunnan Yukun 4.00. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sichuan Jiuniu are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 / Yunnan Yukun 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / def 1.032 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Sichuan Jiuniu 3 - 4 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 50% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Sichuan Jiuniu home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sichuan Jiuniu's attack at 0.93x the league average against Yunnan Yukun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.00
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.19 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Yunnan Yukun have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
0
Draws
4
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Yunnan Yukun have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Yunnan Yukun?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-4 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.76 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yunnan Yukun outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 50% | Draw 25% | Yunnan Yukun 25%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.