Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Wuhan Zall at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 3D 3L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 1W 5D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Wuhan Zall and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–4 with Wuhan Zall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Wuhan Zall trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% and Wuhan Zall 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% | Wuhan Zall 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.855 / defence 1.128 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.724 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 14 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 34% | Wuhan Zall 30%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Wuhan Zall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Wuhan Zall 56%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 34% | Wuhan Zall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 / Wuhan Zall 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.855 / def 1.128 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.724 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wuhan Zall xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Zall 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.21
1.05
Wuhan Zall xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.05 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 5L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 0.94 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 3W 3D 3L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 1W 5D 3L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Wuhan Zall in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 10D 5L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.33 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J. go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 9 December 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%, Wuhan Zall 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 44% for Wuhan Zall.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 33%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 44% of games; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 56% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 44% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Wuhan Zall 2-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.05 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Zall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 34% | Wuhan Zall 30%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%, Wuhan Zall 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.94 PPG, Wuhan Zall 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.