Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Shijiazhuang Y. J. take on Shandong Luneng.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Shandong Luneng at Cangzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Cangzhou Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cangzhou Stadium this season.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 1.80 PPG versus Shandong Luneng's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Shandong Luneng 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2022, ended 3–2 with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54% versus Shandong Luneng 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / defence 0.979 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.962 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.227. Data: 40 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 40 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 37% | Shandong Luneng 34%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Shandong Luneng 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 40% | Shandong Luneng 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 37% | Shandong Luneng 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 / Shandong Luneng 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / def 0.979 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.962 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 28% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.83) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
37%
2.69
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.19
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.16 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 17D 22L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Shandong Luneng's form line: 40W 9D 7L from 56 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Venue Form
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, Shandong Luneng have gone 16W 6D 6L from 28 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.39 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 40W 9D 7L in their last 56 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.25 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
From 8 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 39%, Shandong Luneng 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 57% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 36%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shandong Luneng finished level at 1-1 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.03 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 28% | Draw 37% | Shandong Luneng 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.