Shenyang Urban 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenyang Urban at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Tiexi Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shenyang Urban's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shenyang Urban, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tiexi Stadium, Shenyang Urban have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shenyang Urban 0W, Sichuan Jiuniu 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shenyang Urban half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shenyang Urban 52% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenyang Urban 62% | Sichuan Jiuniu 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenyang Urban 2.15 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenyang Urban attack 0.946 / defence 1.200 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.290. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Shenyang Urban's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Shenyang Urban games / 52 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 60% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%. Fair-value odds: Shenyang Urban 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Shenyang Urban (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shenyang Urban at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shenyang Urban 70% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tiexi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenyang Urban 60% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Shenyang Urban 2.15 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Shenyang Urban attack 0.946 / def 1.200 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.758 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Shenyang Urban (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Shenyang Urban xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Tiexi Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Shenyang Urban 1 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Tiexi Stadium.
What competition is Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Shenyang Urban a 60% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shenyang Urban the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Shenyang Urban 0W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 1W.
What form are Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Shenyang Urban (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shenyang Urban's attack rating (0.95) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.76x) against Shenyang Urban's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 21/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenyang Urban Win
60%
1.67
20%
4.93
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Shenyang Urban xG
Total xG
3.33
1.17
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
2%
43.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.17 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shenyang Urban come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 3D 11L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Shenyang Urban is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sichuan Jiuniu sit at 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shenyang Urban against 1.10 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shenyang Urban's home form reads 5W 0D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sichuan Jiuniu have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenyang Urban come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.38 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenyang Urban
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Shenyang Urban have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 2D 12L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenyang Urban at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Shenyang Urban's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenyang Urban at home: 1.50 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Shenyang Urban
0
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 2 meetings on record, Shenyang Urban have won 0, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Shenyang Urban 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shenyang Urban are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shenyang Urban 70%, Sichuan Jiuniu 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Shenyang Urban and 50% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shenyang Urban have failed to score in 30% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenyang Urban home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenyang Urban play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Shenyang Urban's games and 40% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Shenyang Urban's matches and 50% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Shenyang Urban and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Shenyang Urban have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Shenyang Urban 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Shenyang Urban 1-2 at Tiexi Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenyang Urban 2.15 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shenyang Urban fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenyang Urban attack 0.95 / defence 1.20 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.76 / defence 1.34, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenyang Urban 60% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%, with Shenyang Urban to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenyang Urban 62%, Sichuan Jiuniu 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenyang Urban's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shenyang Urban 1.14 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.