Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Henan Jianye travel to Shanghai Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Shanghai Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Henan Jianye trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 47% versus Henan Jianye 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 47% | Henan Jianye 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.00 xG and Henan Jianye 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.350 / defence 0.749 | Henan Jianye attack 0.808 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.354. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Shanghai Shenhua games / 57 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 14%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Henan Jianye 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.00 / Henan Jianye 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.350 / def 0.749 | Henan Jianye attack 0.808 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Henan Jianye xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 65% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 3W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.35x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.87
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.82
0.82
Henan Jianye xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
2%
51.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.82 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 57 games, going 37W 11D 9L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.23 PPG from 57 outings (18W 16D 23L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 19W 6D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (5W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 37W 11D 9L in their last 57 games (2.14 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 50%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 46% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 46% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.00 xG and Henan Jianye 0.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.35 / defence 0.75 against Henan Jianye attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Draw 21% | Henan Jianye 14%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Henan Jianye 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.