Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Qingdao Youth Football Stadium plays host to Qingdao Jonoon versus Shenzhen Ruby FC in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 12 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Qingdao Jonoon have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 3L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Qingdao Jonoon half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 53% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 47% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.787 / defence 1.014 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.710 / defence 1.588. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.247. Qingdao Jonoon's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.588 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Qingdao Jonoon games / 48 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Jonoon 43% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.787 / def 1.014 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.710 / def 1.588 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 12 July 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Qingdao Jonoon 5 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 57% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.79x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.71x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 15/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.85
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.67
0.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
3%
33.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 0.90 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 4D 9L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 0.73 PPG from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Qingdao Jonoon against 0.73 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shenzhen Ruby FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.93 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 3W 2D 10L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 0.83 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2023, when Qingdao Jonoon 5-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 33%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 83% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 50% of games; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 50% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 5-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.77 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.59, drawn from 15/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 57% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 17%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 47%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.67 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 3.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.