Chengdu Better City 2-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Chengdu Better City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Henan Jianye in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chengdu Better City lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Henan Jianye 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 48% | Henan Jianye 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.48 xG and Henan Jianye 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.039 / defence 0.876 | Henan Jianye attack 0.855 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.266. Data: 49 Chengdu Better City games / 48 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 23%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 4.35. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 60% | Henan Jianye 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.48 / Henan Jianye 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.039 / def 0.876 | Henan Jianye attack 0.855 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Henan Jianye xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 11 July 2023 at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 48% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.04) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.85x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.43
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.43
0.95
Henan Jianye xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.95 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 17D 6L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.48 PPG from 48 outings (19W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 13W 10D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.33 points per game from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.46 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 25W 17D 6L in their last 48 games (1.92 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 19W 14D 15L in their last 48 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Henan Jianye away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.04 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 3-0 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Chengdu Better City 3-0 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 54%, Henan Jianye 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Chengdu Better City) and 38% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 50% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 38% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Henan Jianye.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Henan Jianye 2-0 at Leshan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.48 xG and Henan Jianye 0.95 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Henan Jianye attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 23%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 48%, Henan Jianye 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.