Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun host Tianjin Teda at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nantong Zhiyun, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantong Zhiyun trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tianjin Teda trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantong Zhiyun 55% versus Tianjin Teda 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantong Zhiyun 31% | Tianjin Teda 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 0.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.524 / defence 1.112 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.067 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.524 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Nantong Zhiyun games / 62 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 14% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 59%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Nantong Zhiyun's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 40% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 14% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 34% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 0.58 / Tianjin Teda 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.524 / def 1.112 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.067 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Tianjin Teda xG
34%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 14% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.58. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Nantong Zhiyun's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-2 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
14%
7.09
27%
3.69
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.0%
Away win
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.05
1.48
Tianjin Teda xG
7.09
14%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
56%
1.78
Win to Nil
3%
31.01
33%
3.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 18.9 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.48 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantong Zhiyun's recent record stands at 4W 10D 15L from 29 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 4L across 29 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantong Zhiyun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantong Zhiyun have managed 2W 4D 8L from 14 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 5W 5D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.31 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 15L in their last 29 games (0.76 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 10W 15D 4L in their last 29 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.71 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantong Zhiyun's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
3
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 June 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 43%, Tianjin Teda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Nantong Zhiyun and 29% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 29% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-2 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 0.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.48 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.52 / defence 1.11 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 14% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 59%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 31%, Tianjin Teda 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.