Meizhou Kejia 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Meizhou Kejia's favour (1.50 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 2W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 55% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 56% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.733 / defence 0.997 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.974 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.387. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Meizhou Kejia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Meizhou Kejia games / 39 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 42% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 42% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.57 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.733 / def 0.997 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.974 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 42% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (4 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 2W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.73x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.97x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.83
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.92
1.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.35 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 14D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (19W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Meizhou Kejia against 1.17 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (11W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.69 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Meizhou Kejia won 4-1 on 29 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Meizhou Kejia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 62%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Meizhou Kejia and 66% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 1-1 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.57 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.97 / defence 1.54, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 42% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.