Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Henan Jianye take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Tianjin Teda at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Tianjin Teda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Henan Jianye's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
It is worth noting that Tianjin Teda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 67% and Tianjin Teda 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 62% | Tianjin Teda 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.90 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.774 / defence 0.800 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.875 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.377. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Henan Jianye games / 55 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 34%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Tianjin Teda 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 40% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 31% | Draw 35% | Tianjin Teda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Henan Jianye 0.90 / Tianjin Teda 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.774 / def 0.800 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.875 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Tianjin Teda xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 31% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Record (10 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 6W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.77) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
35%
2.86
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
1.86
0.96
Tianjin Teda xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.0 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.96 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 15D 22L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 20W 16D 19L from 55 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.25 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.44 PPG from 27 outings (10W 9D 8L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.44 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
6
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Tianjin Teda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Henan Jianye) and 48% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 56% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.