Hebei Zhongji 0-5 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. meet at Datong Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hebei Zhongji have collected 0.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 3.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at Datong Sports Center Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 42% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.29 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.808 / defence 1.901 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.197 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.282. Data: 32 Hebei Zhongji games / 32 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 14% | Draw 16% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 7.14 | Draw 6.25 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.21 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral: Hebei Zhongji 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Datong Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 14% | Draw 16% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 69% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.29 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.808 / def 1.901 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.197 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
2.92
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
69%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 08:30 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Datong Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 5 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Datong Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 14% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 70% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.20x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.90x) — and the away total comes out at 2.92.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.9%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
14%
7.24
16%
6.25
70%
1.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
0 – 2
6.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
4.21
2.92
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
7.24
14%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
1.42
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
5%
18.47
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
1%
133.63
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 2.92 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 7W 7D 26L from 40 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 18L across 40 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Hebei Zhongji against 1.05 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 5W 3D 11L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 26L in their last 40 games (0.70 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 0.95 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 2 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 42%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hebei Zhongji) and 68% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 47% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 74% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Hebei Zhongji's matches and 68% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shijiazhuang Y. J. run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Hebei Zhongji 0-5 at Datong Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.29 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.92 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 2.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.81 / defence 1.90 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.20 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 14% | Draw 16% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 50%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 0.70 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.