Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji host Guangzhou Evergrande FC at Puwan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Puwan Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Puwan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hebei Zhongji at 0.30 PPG versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 42% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 42% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.49 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.820 / defence 1.400 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.817 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.149. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Hebei Zhongji's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Hebei Zhongji games / 23 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 41% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hebei Zhongji are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Hebei Zhongji 30% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 41% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.49 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.820 / def 1.400 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.817 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 41% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (3 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.82) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.70
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.31 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 7W 7D 17L from 31 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 12L across 31 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guangzhou Evergrande FC by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 5W 2D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.65 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 17L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 14W 5D 12L in their last 31 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.27 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guangzhou Evergrande FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Guangzhou Evergrande FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
1
Draws
3
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 47%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hebei Zhongji) and 47% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 40% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 47% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guangzhou Evergrande FC defy the odds to beat Hebei Zhongji 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Hebei Zhongji 0-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.49 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.82 / defence 1.40 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 41% | Draw 27% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 32%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Guangzhou Evergrande FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 42%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.