Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Hebei Zhongji at Jinzhou Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Jinzhou Stadium — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 1, Hebei Zhongji 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% versus Hebei Zhongji 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Hebei Zhongji 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.10 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.782 / defence 0.934 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.934 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.170. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 18 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 36% | Draw 32% | Hebei Zhongji 32%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Hebei Zhongji 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% | Hebei Zhongji 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 36% | Draw 32% | Hebei Zhongji 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.10 / Hebei Zhongji 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.782 / def 0.934 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.934 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 36% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Record (2 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W | Draws 1 | Hebei Zhongji 0W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.16
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.12
1.02
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.02 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 13W 5D 4L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji's form line: 6W 7D 9L from 22 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hebei Zhongji.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 2.45 PPG from 11 outings (8W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.68 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 games (2.00 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guangzhou Evergrande FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46%, Hebei Zhongji 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 36% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 36% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guangzhou Evergrande FC edge out Hebei Zhongji 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.10 xG and Hebei Zhongji 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hebei Zhongji landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 36% | Draw 32% | Hebei Zhongji 32%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Hebei Zhongji 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.