Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Wuhan Zall to Puwan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's home record at Puwan Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dalian Aerbin carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dalian Aerbin, 1 for Wuhan Zall and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Wuhan Zall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 49% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 49% | Wuhan Zall 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.144 / defence 1.011 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.909 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.305. Wuhan Zall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Dalian Aerbin games / 35 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Zall 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Wuhan Zall 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.97 / Wuhan Zall 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.144 / def 1.011 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.909 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Wuhan Zall xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 55% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Zall 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.59
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.17
1.20
Wuhan Zall xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.20 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 12W 9D 22L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 8W 13D 22L from 43 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 1.05 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Aerbin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.07 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Wuhan Zall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 13D 22L in their last 43 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.25 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2022, when Wuhan Zall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 55%, Wuhan Zall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 45% (Wuhan Zall).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 40% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 45% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wuhan Zall in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Aerbin edge out Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.20 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.14 / defence 1.01 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 55% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Zall 23%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 49%, Wuhan Zall 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 1.05 PPG, Wuhan Zall 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.