Chengdu Better City 3-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chengdu Better City at 1.70 PPG versus Meizhou Kejia's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 1, Meizhou Kejia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Meizhou Kejia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 49% versus Meizhou Kejia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 49% | Meizhou Kejia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.17 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.168 / defence 0.818 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.949 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Chengdu Better City games / 63 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 64% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 15%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Meizhou Kejia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 40% | Meizhou Kejia 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 64% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.17 / Meizhou Kejia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.168 / def 0.818 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.949 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 64% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (3 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
64%
1.55
20%
4.96
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.13
0.96
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
11%
8.72
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
56.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.96 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 32W 19D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 23W 14D 26L from 63 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 1.97 PPG from 31 outings (17W 10D 4L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 7W 8D 16L from 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.35 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 32W 19D 12L in their last 63 games (1.83 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 26L in their last 63 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.97 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Chengdu Better City 3-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 55%, Meizhou Kejia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Chengdu Better City) and 52% (Meizhou Kejia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 48% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 52% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Meizhou Kejia 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.17 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.96 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 64% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 15%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 49%, Meizhou Kejia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.