Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Hangzhou Greentown to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Hangzhou Greentown 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 37% | Hangzhou Greentown 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.859 / defence 0.859 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.243. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Shanghai Shenhua games / 62 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 43%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.859 / def 0.859 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.329 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hangzhou Greentown xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 29% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
29%
3.42
27%
3.67
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.54
1.42
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.14
14%
7.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.42 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 28W 18D 16L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 32W 18D 12L across 62 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.65 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 13W 12D 6L across 31 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 28W 18D 16L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 32W 18D 12L in their last 62 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.81 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 45%, Hangzhou Greentown 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 58% (Hangzhou Greentown).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 71% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 58% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.42 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 29% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 43%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 37%, Hangzhou Greentown 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.65 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.