Pacific FC 1-2 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 June 2024, 03:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Starlight Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pacific FC) versus 1.50 (Vancouver FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 61% versus Vancouver FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 54% | Vancouver FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.45 xG and Vancouver FC 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.849 / defence 0.727 | Vancouver FC attack 0.979 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.086. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Pacific FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pacific FC's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Pacific FC games / 39 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 49% | Draw 34% | Vancouver FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.04 | Draw 2.94 | Vancouver FC 6.25. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Vancouver FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 03:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 49% | Draw 34% | Vancouver FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Pacific FC 1.45 / Vancouver FC 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.849 / def 0.727 | Vancouver FC attack 0.979 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Vancouver FC xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 03:30 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 49% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 16% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
49%
2.02
34%
2.93
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.77
Vancouver FC xG
2.02
49%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
25.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.77 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 12W 6D 10L from 28 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 15L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pacific FC by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Vancouver FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 12W 6D 10L in their last 28 games (1.50 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 8W 5D 15L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
4
Draws
4
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-1 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 58%, Vancouver FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pacific FC) and 50% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 50% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pacific FC's recent games and 50% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vancouver FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.45 xG and Vancouver FC 0.77 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vancouver FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.73 against Vancouver FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 49% | Draw 34% | Vancouver FC 16%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Vancouver FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 54%, Vancouver FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (28 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (28 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Vancouver FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.