Atlético Ottawa 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Atlético Ottawa take on Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to TD Place Stadium to face Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 June 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.16 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.894 / defence 1.004 | Vancouver FC attack 0.755 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.279. Data: 37 Atlético Ottawa games / 9 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Vancouver FC 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jun 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.16 / Vancouver FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.894 / def 1.004 | Vancouver FC attack 0.755 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 June 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 36% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Atlético Ottawa home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.76x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 37/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.77
37%
2.68
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.13
0.97
Vancouver FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 0.97 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Pre-Season
Vancouver FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Vancouver FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
4
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Atlético Ottawa edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.16 xG and Vancouver FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vancouver FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Vancouver FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 37/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 37% | Vancouver FC 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.