Atlético Ottawa 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa at TD Place Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 52% versus Cavalry FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 46% | Cavalry FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.15 xG and Cavalry FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.142 / defence 1.130 | Cavalry FC attack 0.763 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.234. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Atlético Ottawa games / 44 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Cavalry FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | Cavalry FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.15 / Cavalry FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.142 / def 1.130 | Cavalry FC attack 0.763 / def 0.688 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cavalry FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Atlético Ottawa 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 36% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atlético Ottawa's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (0.76x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.02
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.21
1.06
Cavalry FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.06 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 11D 15L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 21W 13D 10L from 44 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.73 for Cavalry FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (9W 6D 6L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.41 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 21W 13D 10L in their last 44 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Cavalry FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.57 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Cavalry FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
2
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 52%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atlético Ottawa) and 38% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 38% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Atlético Ottawa 1-2 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.15 xG and Cavalry FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Cavalry FC attack 0.76 / defence 0.69, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 36% | Draw 33% | Cavalry FC 31%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 46%, Cavalry FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.48 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.