Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio São Januário plays host to Vasco DA Gama versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Thursday 21 November 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasco DA Gama have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estádio São Januário — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Internacional (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Internacional are 1.20 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama in recent Serie A fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 1W, Internacional 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Internacional half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Internacional 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 42% | Internacional 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.28 xG and Internacional 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.088 / defence 1.082 | Internacional attack 1.292 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 0.981. Internacional have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Vasco DA Gama games / 71 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 35% | Draw 27% | Internacional 39%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Internacional 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Internacional are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Internacional if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Internacional 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Nov 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 35% | Draw 27% | Internacional 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.28 / Internacional 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.088 / def 1.082 | Internacional attack 1.292 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.332 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Internacional (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Internacional xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 35% chance of winning, Internacional a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Internacional?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Internacional in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Internacional (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (1.29x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.77
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.66
1.37
Internacional xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.37 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 71 games, going 24W 16D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.61 PPG from 71 outings (31W 21D 19L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Vasco DA Gama against 1.61 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 18W 6D 11L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.34 points per game from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.30 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Internacional in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 24W 16D 31L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Internacional have gone 31W 21D 19L in their last 71 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Internacional away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.71 PPG; Internacional away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Internacional in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasco DA Gama won 5-1 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Internacional?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Internacional 4-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 49%, Internacional 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasco DA Gama) and 40% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Internacional in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 51% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 40% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Internacional tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Internacional in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Internacional edge out Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.28 xG and Internacional 1.37 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Internacional attack 1.29 / defence 0.89, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 35% | Draw 27% | Internacional 39%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 42%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.24 PPG, Internacional 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.