Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fluminense (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fluminense face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Cuiaba at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 December 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fluminense — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Fluminense's 20% and Cuiaba's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
Fluminense hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Cuiaba, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
The historical record gives Fluminense a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 40% versus Cuiaba 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 36% | Cuiaba 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.97 xG and Cuiaba 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.829 / defence 0.868 | Cuiaba attack 0.668 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.049. Data: 74 Fluminense games / 74 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 42% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.38 | Draw 2.63 | Cuiaba 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 20% | Cuiaba 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 42% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Fluminense 0.97 / Cuiaba 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.829 / def 0.868 | Cuiaba attack 0.668 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Cuiaba xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Fluminense vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Cuiaba part of?
Fluminense vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 42% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 21% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Fluminense and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Record (7 meetings): Fluminense 5W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
42%
2.41
38%
2.66
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.58
0.61
Cuiaba xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.35
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.61 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 26W 18D 30L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 20W 21D 33L from 74 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.30 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.86 PPG from 37 outings (19W 12D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 11W 10D 16L from 37 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.92 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 26W 18D 30L in their last 74 games (1.30 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 21D 33L in their last 74 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Cuiaba away?
Fluminense's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.86 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Cuiaba runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Cuiaba won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Fluminense
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2024, when Fluminense 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Cuiaba?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 49%, Cuiaba 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Fluminense) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cuiaba in 32%; Cuiaba in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Fluminense's recent matches and 32% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Fluminense's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Cuiaba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Cuiaba 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.97 xG and Cuiaba 0.61 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Cuiaba attack 0.67 / defence 0.88, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 42% | Draw 38% | Cuiaba 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 36%, Cuiaba 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.30 PPG, Cuiaba 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.