Cuiaba 1-2 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cuiaba's home record at Arena Pantanal: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.10 for Vasco DA Gama. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Vasco DA Gama, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
It is worth noting that Vasco DA Gama have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 36% versus Vasco DA Gama 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 39% | Vasco DA Gama 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.28 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.755 / defence 1.062 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.767 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.053. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Cuiaba games / 75 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 45% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 24%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Vasco DA Gama 4.17. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 50% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 45% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cuiaba 1.28 / Vasco DA Gama 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.755 / def 1.062 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.767 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Vasco DA Gama xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 45% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 3W.
What form are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.76x the league average against Vasco DA Gama's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.77x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.18
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.14
0.86
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.86 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 20W 21D 34L from 75 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 33L across 75 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.23 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 9W 11D 17L from 37 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 6W 10D 21L across 37 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.09 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 20W 21D 34L in their last 75 games (1.08 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 25W 17D 33L in their last 75 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.03 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
0
Draws
4
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
From 4 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 40%, Vasco DA Gama 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cuiaba) and 40% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 43% of games; Vasco DA Gama in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 51% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cuiaba's recent games and 40% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.28 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.86 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.76 / defence 1.06 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.77 / defence 1.27, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 45% | Draw 31% | Vasco DA Gama 24%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 39%, Vasco DA Gama 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.08 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.