Ceara 1-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bahia (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ceara face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Bahia travel to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to take on Ceara. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bahia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bahia — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ceara, 2 for Bahia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Bahia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ceara in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bahia in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 41% versus Bahia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 32% | Bahia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 0.92 xG and Bahia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.618 / defence 0.959 | Bahia attack 0.950 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.109. Ceara's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ceara games / 59 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 31% | Bahia 37%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Bahia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 30% | Bahia 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 32% | Draw 31% | Bahia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Ceara 0.92 / Bahia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.618 / def 0.959 | Bahia attack 0.950 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Bahia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Bahia xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Bahia kick off?
Ceara vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Bahia?
Ceara 1 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Ceara vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Bahia part of?
Ceara vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 32% chance of winning, Bahia a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ceara and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Bahia?
Record (3 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 1 | Bahia 2W.
What form are Ceara and Bahia in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Bahia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.62) and Bahia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.18
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.93
1.01
Bahia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Ceara and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ceara and 1.01 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ceara come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bahia sit at 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (11W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Ceara — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ceara's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bahia have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bahia's season.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.41 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bahia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Bahia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Bahia in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while Bahia have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Bahia away?
Ceara's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.40 PPG; Bahia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Ceara or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bahia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Bahia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ceara
2
Draws
2
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Bahia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ceara 30% BTTS, Bahia 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Ceara and 50% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Ceara have failed to score in 40% of games; Bahia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ceara's recent matches and 40% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Ceara's recent games and 50% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Bahia tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bahia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara and Bahia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 24, as Ceara and Bahia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 0.92 xG and Bahia 1.01 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.62 / defence 0.96 against Bahia attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 32% | Draw 31% | Bahia 37%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 32%, Bahia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bahia's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.