Bahia 3-0 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bahia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Atletico-MG (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bahia against 1.50 for Atletico-MG. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bahia 1W, Atletico-MG 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 51% versus Atletico-MG 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 48% | Atletico-MG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.44 xG and Atletico-MG 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.987 / defence 0.787 | Atletico-MG attack 1.177 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.043. Bahia's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Bahia games / 61 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 25%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico-MG 4.00. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 40% | Atletico-MG 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Bahia 1.44 / Atletico-MG 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.987 / def 0.787 | Atletico-MG attack 1.177 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Atletico-MG xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Bahia vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Bahia 3 - 0 Atletico-MG.
Where is Bahia vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Atletico-MG part of?
Bahia vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bahia and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico-MG?
Record (5 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico-MG 3W.
What form are Bahia and Atletico-MG in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.99) and Atletico-MG's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.18x) against Bahia's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 63/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.70
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.41
0.97
Atletico-MG xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bahia and 0.97 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 23W 14D 24L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG's form line: 27W 18D 16L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Bahia against 1.62 for Atletico-MG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 12W 10D 8L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.38 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 23W 14D 24L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 27W 18D 16L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Atletico-MG away?
Bahia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.83 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bahia or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won 3-0 on 25 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico-MG?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Atletico-MG have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 50%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bahia) and 47% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 37%; Atletico-MG in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bahia's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bahia's recent games and 47% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atletico-MG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Atletico-MG 3-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.44 xG and Atletico-MG 0.97 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atletico-MG landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Atletico-MG attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 48% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 25%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 48%, Atletico-MG 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.36 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.