Union St. Gilloise 2-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Union St. Gilloise (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union St. Gilloise face St. Truiden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St. Truiden make the trip to Stade Joseph Marien to face Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's home record at Stade Joseph Marien: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Marien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
St. Truiden's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Union St. Gilloise's favour (2.50 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Union St. Gilloise winning.
The historical record gives Union St. Gilloise a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 43% versus St. Truiden 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 51% | St. Truiden 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.435 / defence 0.689 | St. Truiden attack 1.087 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.096. Union St. Gilloise carry an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence rating of 0.689 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Union St. Gilloise games / 41 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 15%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | St. Truiden 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 30% | St. Truiden 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Joseph Marien • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.75 / St. Truiden 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.435 / def 0.689 | St. Truiden attack 1.087 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.82
St. Truiden xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stade Joseph Marien.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise 2 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Marien.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Record (5 meetings): Union St. Gilloise 4W | Draws 1 | St. Truiden 0W.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.09x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.70
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.57
0.82
St. Truiden xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
37.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.82 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Union St. Gilloise have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 30W 12D 5L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden's form line: 15W 14D 18L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union St. Gilloise are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St. Truiden.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union St. Gilloise have posted 2.39 PPG from 23 outings (17W 4D 2L).
On the road, St. Truiden have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.43 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 70%.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 30W 12D 5L in their last 47 games (2.17 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 15W 14D 18L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or St. Truiden away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.39 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
1
Draws
1
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, St. Truiden have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when St. Truiden 0-3 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 39%, St. Truiden 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Union St. Gilloise) and 56% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 70% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 56% of St. Truiden's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union St. Gilloise cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat St. Truiden 2-0 at Stade Joseph Marien, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.75 xG and St. Truiden 0.82 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. St. Truiden landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.44 / defence 0.69 against St. Truiden attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 57% | Draw 27% | St. Truiden 15%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 51%, St. Truiden 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.