St. Truiden vs OH Leuven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates St. Truiden at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs OH Leuven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as St. Truiden welcome OH Leuven to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, St. Truiden have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OH Leuven stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OH Leuven's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
St. Truiden carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with St. Truiden winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
St. Truiden in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
OH Leuven in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 56% versus OH Leuven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 58% | OH Leuven 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.89 xG and OH Leuven 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.074 / defence 0.981 | OH Leuven attack 0.727 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.357. Data: 35 St. Truiden games / 35 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 19%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | OH Leuven 5.26. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St. Truiden at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 60% | OH Leuven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 59% | Draw 22% | OH Leuven 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG St. Truiden 1.89 / OH Leuven 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.074 / def 0.981 | OH Leuven attack 0.727 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.97
OH Leuven xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs OH Leuven kick off?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven part of?
St. Truiden vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 59% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St. Truiden and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
Record (10 meetings): St. Truiden 3W | Draws 4 | OH Leuven 3W.
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. OH Leuven (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.07x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OH Leuven's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.51
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.85
0.97
OH Leuven xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
34.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.97 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs OH Leuven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, St. Truiden have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 24W 7D 14L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OH Leuven's form line: 10W 10D 25L from 45 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for OH Leuven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, St. Truiden are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OH Leuven.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St. Truiden have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (14W 3D 6L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St. Truiden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 0.96 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
OH Leuven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 24W 7D 14L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 10W 10D 25L in their last 45 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or OH Leuven away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.96 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and OH Leuven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when OH Leuven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting OH Leuven specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St. Truiden
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when St. Truiden 1-0 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
OH Leuven see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 52%, OH Leuven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (St. Truiden) and 48% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; OH Leuven in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 48% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of St. Truiden's recent games and 48% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and OH Leuven tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.