St. Truiden 2-1 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KV Mechelen at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 14 as St. Truiden welcome KV Mechelen to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, KV Mechelen have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KV Mechelen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KV Mechelen's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. KV Mechelen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: St. Truiden have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while KV Mechelen have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–1 with St. Truiden winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St. Truiden and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
KV Mechelen trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus KV Mechelen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 45% | KV Mechelen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.40 xG and KV Mechelen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.003 / defence 1.077 | KV Mechelen attack 1.267 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.030. KV Mechelen have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 St. Truiden games / 43 KV Mechelen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | KV Mechelen 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
St. Truiden dominate the H2H record, yet KV Mechelen are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: St. Truiden 70% | KV Mechelen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG St. Truiden 1.40 / KV Mechelen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.003 / def 1.077 | KV Mechelen attack 1.267 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.41
KV Mechelen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kick off?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 KV Mechelen.
Where is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen part of?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 34% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both St. Truiden and KV Mechelen will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
Record (4 meetings): St. Truiden 4W | Draws 0 | KV Mechelen 0W.
What form are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. KV Mechelen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.00x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KV Mechelen's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KV Mechelen Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.16
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.80
1.41
KV Mechelen xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.41 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 16W 19D 18L from 53 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KV Mechelen, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 19L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for KV Mechelen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.26 PPG, KV Mechelen on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 9D 5L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
KV Mechelen's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.62 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
KV Mechelen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 19D 18L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 24W 10D 19L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KV Mechelen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.73 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or KV Mechelen been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, KV Mechelen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: St. Truiden have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when St. Truiden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting KV Mechelen specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
St. Truiden
1
Draws
0
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 9, KV Mechelen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KV Mechelen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when St. Truiden 3-0 KV Mechelen.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 54%, KV Mechelen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (St. Truiden) and 46% (KV Mechelen).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; KV Mechelen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play KV Mechelen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 50% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of St. Truiden's recent games and 46% of KV Mechelen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KV Mechelen tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, KV Mechelen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat KV Mechelen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.40 xG and KV Mechelen 1.41 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against KV Mechelen attack 1.27 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 45%, KV Mechelen 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.