Kortrijk 1-0 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kortrijk host AS Eupen at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 19:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kortrijk have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Kortrijk have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Eupen stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AS Eupen away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Kortrijk have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Kortrijk, 1 for AS Eupen and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Kortrijk 1–1 AS Eupen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus AS Eupen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 54% | AS Eupen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.764 / defence 1.144 | AS Eupen attack 0.653 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. AS Eupen's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kortrijk's projected output up. AS Eupen's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and AS Eupen's last 64.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.96 | Draw 3.77 | AS Eupen 4.44. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 50% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Kortrijk 1.47 / AS Eupen 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.764 / def 1.144 | AS Eupen attack 0.653 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AS Eupen xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kick off?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 AS Eupen.
Where is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs AS Eupen part of?
Kortrijk vs AS Eupen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kortrijk and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Kortrijk vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.76x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and AS Eupen's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.77
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.34
0.88
AS Eupen xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
19.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.88 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 15W 14D 39L from 68 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 43L across 68 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 0.87 PPG, AS Eupen on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 8W 8D 18L from their last 34 home games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 6W 4D 24L across their last 34 away games, a 0.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kortrijk are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 0.99 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
Kortrijk (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Current Season
AS Eupen
Current Season
❓ Kortrijk vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 15W 14D 39L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 14W 11D 43L in their last 68 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or AS Eupen away?
Kortrijk's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 0.94 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. They cover more than one competition — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kortrijk's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
5
Draws
2
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 3, AS Eupen have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and AS Eupen?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, AS Eupen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kortrijk) and 53% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 38% of games; AS Eupen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and AS Eupen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 44% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kortrijk and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kortrijk's recent games and 53% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 68% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out AS Eupen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat AS Eupen 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.47 xG and AS Eupen 0.88 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against AS Eupen attack 0.65 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 51% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 23%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 54%, AS Eupen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Eupen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.87 PPG, AS Eupen 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.