Charleroi 3-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kortrijk make the trip to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to face Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Charleroi have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kortrijk's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Charleroi. A 0.50 PPG lead over Kortrijk (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Charleroi edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Charleroi 2–1 Kortrijk — a Charleroi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 54% versus Kortrijk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 53% | Kortrijk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.45 xG and Kortrijk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.865 / defence 1.121 | Kortrijk attack 0.831 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Data: built from Charleroi's last 63 games and Kortrijk's last 64.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 45% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.21 | Draw 3.81 | Kortrijk 3.50. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charleroi 50% (last 10 home games) | Kortrijk 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 45% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Charleroi 1.45 / Kortrijk 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.865 / def 1.121 | Kortrijk attack 0.831 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Kortrijk FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Kortrijk kick off?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Charleroi 3 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Charleroi vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Kortrijk part of?
Charleroi vs Kortrijk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 45% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charleroi and Kortrijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Charleroi vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.86) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.83x) against Charleroi's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 63 games and Kortrijk's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.81
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.54
1.09
Kortrijk xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Kortrijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.09 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charleroi's recent record stands at 25W 15D 28L from 68 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Kortrijk, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 38L across 68 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 14W 7D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kortrijk's away record stands at 6W 6D 21L across their last 33 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.96 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
Charleroi (Home) vs Kortrijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Current Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Charleroi vs Kortrijk Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 25W 15D 28L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 16W 14D 38L in their last 68 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Kortrijk away?
Charleroi's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.48 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Charleroi have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Charleroi
2
Draws
1
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Kortrijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 7, Kortrijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Kortrijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Kortrijk?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 61%, Kortrijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charleroi) and 58% (Kortrijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Kortrijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Kortrijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Charleroi's recent matches and 48% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and Kortrijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Charleroi's matches and 58% of Kortrijk's.
Do Charleroi and Kortrijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Charleroi's recent matches and 82% of Kortrijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Kortrijk 3-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Relegation Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.45 xG and Kortrijk 1.09 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Kortrijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 45% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 53%, Kortrijk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Kortrijk's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Kortrijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.