Charleroi 1-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Standard Liege fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Standard Liege are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Charleroi's 20% rate and Standard Liege's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 for Standard Liege and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Standard Liege winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 45% versus Standard Liege 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Standard Liege 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.56 xG and Standard Liege 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.737 / defence 0.893 | Standard Liege attack 0.713 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 0.974. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Charleroi games / 45 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 12%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 3.23 | Standard Liege 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Standard Liege (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 20% | Standard Liege 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Charleroi 1.56 / Standard Liege 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.737 / def 0.893 | Standard Liege attack 0.713 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.790 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Standard Liege xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 57% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 12% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 2 | Standard Liege 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.74) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
57%
1.75
31%
3.21
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.18
0.62
Standard Liege xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
2%
40.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.62 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 17W 11D 23L from 51 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 20L across 51 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.22 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 3W 7D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Standard Liege's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Standard Liege
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.68 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Standard Liege runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
3
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Standard Liege have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Standard Liege 0-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 52%, Standard Liege 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charleroi) and 68% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Standard Liege in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Standard Liege?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charleroi's recent matches and 56% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charleroi's recent games and 68% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Standard Liege share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Standard Liege finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 16, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.56 xG and Standard Liege 0.62 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Standard Liege attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 31% | Standard Liege 12%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Standard Liege 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.22 PPG, Standard Liege 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liege (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.