Cercle Brugge 2-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 3W 3D 4L at Jan Breydelstadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cercle Brugge 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cercle Brugge register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Charleroi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Cercle Brugge have won 2, Charleroi 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Charleroi trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 58% versus Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 56% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG and Charleroi 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.947 / defence 1.057 | Charleroi attack 0.919 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.073. Data: 42 Cercle Brugge games / 42 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Charleroi 4.35. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cercle Brugge 80% | Charleroi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.54 / Charleroi 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.947 / def 1.057 | Charleroi attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Charleroi xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Cercle Brugge 2 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 46% chance of winning, Charleroi a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
Record (6 meetings): Cercle Brugge 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 3W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Charleroi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.95) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.19
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
Charleroi xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
5%
20.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.04 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 18W 12D 18L from 48 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.38 PPG, Charleroi on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 5D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.50 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 67%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cercle Brugge) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 2-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG and Charleroi 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 56%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.38 PPG, Charleroi 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.