KRC Genk II 1-4 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Patro Eisden (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KRC Genk II face Patro Eisden.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Patro Eisden travel to Cegeka Arena to take on KRC Genk II. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 games at Cegeka Arena this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Patro Eisden stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Patro Eisden have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Patro Eisden's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Patro Eisden's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Patro Eisden have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for KRC Genk II.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Patro Eisden winning.
It is worth noting that Patro Eisden have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
KRC Genk II trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Patro Eisden trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 57% versus Patro Eisden 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 69% | Patro Eisden 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 0.72 xG and Patro Eisden 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.756 / defence 1.207 | Patro Eisden attack 0.876 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.296. KRC Genk II's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 KRC Genk II games / 35 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 51%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.56 | Draw 3.12 | Patro Eisden 1.96. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 60% | Patro Eisden 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG KRC Genk II 0.72 / Patro Eisden 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.756 / def 1.207 | Patro Eisden attack 0.876 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Patro Eisden xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
KRC Genk II 1 - 4 Patro Eisden.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden part of?
KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 18% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 51% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
Record (4 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 3W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (0.76) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
18%
5.64
32%
3.15
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.09
1.37
Patro Eisden xG
5.64
18%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
5%
22.18
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 17.0 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.37 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 5W 6D 24L from 35 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Patro Eisden, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 9L across 35 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Patro Eisden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 2W 4D 11L from 17 games — 0.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Patro Eisden's away record stands at 8W 5D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.60 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Patro Eisden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 5W 6D 24L in their last 35 games (0.60 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 17W 9D 9L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.59 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.71 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Patro Eisden won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Patro Eisden specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
4
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-4 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 59%, Patro Eisden 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (KRC Genk II) and 47% (Patro Eisden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 41%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 35% of games; Patro Eisden in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 47% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KRC Genk II vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of KRC Genk II's matches and 47% of Patro Eisden's.
Do KRC Genk II and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat KRC Genk II 1-4 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.72 xG and Patro Eisden 1.37 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Patro Eisden attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 18% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 51%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, Patro Eisden 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.