Wolfsberger AC 0-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolfsberger AC haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal-Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SCR Altach haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, SCR Altach 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 62% versus SCR Altach 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 59% | SCR Altach 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.66 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / defence 0.987 | SCR Altach attack 0.986 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.275. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 SCR Altach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 3.85. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 60% | SCR Altach 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.66 / SCR Altach 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.022 / def 0.987 | SCR Altach attack 0.986 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SCR Altach xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 45% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
Record (6 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.02x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.38
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.24
SCR Altach xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.24 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 16W 7D 9L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. Wolfsberger AC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SCR Altach's form line: 5W 11D 16L from 32 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. SCR Altach haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 3W 3D 10L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.91 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Pre-Season
SCR Altach
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 games (1.72 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 11D 16L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.69 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 69%, SCR Altach 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wolfsberger AC) and 50% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 44% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 50% of SCR Altach's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.66 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against SCR Altach attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 45% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 59%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.