Ried 1-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ried face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Sturm Graz at Innviertel Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sturm Graz — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ried, 2 for Sturm Graz and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.963 / defence 1.207 | Sturm Graz attack 1.092 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.277. Data: 2 Ried games / 24 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ried 27% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 49%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 2.04. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 27% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Ried 1.21 / Sturm Graz 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.963 / def 1.207 | Sturm Graz attack 1.092 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Sturm Graz xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Ried vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Ried 1 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Ried vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Sturm Graz part of?
Ried vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 27% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ried and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Sturm Graz?
Record (4 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 2 | Sturm Graz 2W.
What form are Ried and Sturm Graz in?
Ried (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.65
24%
4.16
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Ried xG
Total xG
2.89
1.68
Sturm Graz xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
19.63
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ried and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ried and 1.68 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ried's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ried heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Ried or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ried have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Sturm Graz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ried's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ried
2
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Sturm Graz?
From 6 meetings on record, Ried have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ried's recent matches and 50% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ried's recent games and 50% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Ried 1-3 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.68 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 2/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ried 27% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 49%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Sturm Graz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Ried shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.